06 decembrie 2021

The Cassandra forecast: Biden's 2022 global war

thehill.com

December has arrived and it’s time to forecast 2022. I’ll start the ball rolling by framing the most gloomy scenario: 2022 could mark the end of the world, via global war and nuclear exchanges. Most Americans will find that forecast surprising and offensive. We tend to be optimistic Bayesians: If the sun rose today, certainly it will rise the same way tomorrow. But unfortunately, there are “Black Swan” events — unexpected shocks to the system that totally change the future. And today we [...]